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Decatur Freakshow
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:45 am

Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
Florida Chaetomorpha wrote:
What do you all think about this guy for 2014 and beyond? Does he still seem like a good player to trade for in a dynasty league or did his down year cause him to dip way down the rankings of WR's to covet...

Not sure what you mean by a down year?   He dipped a bit in TD's but otherwise had career highs with 65 catches for 1128 yards...   But the entire Ravens dipped and as Bob alluded to it all started with Flacco at QB,  he just wasn't that good this year...  Of course there is more to it than that,   the O-Line was bad and the running game struggled  and to add to that the Ravens trading Boldin was ill-advised and premature...  due to that trade and injuries at TE and WR,   Smith was often the only decent target that Flacco had and despite constant double coverage he was actually pretty damn productive considering...    If you don't watch the games and study the circumstances and just simply look at stats how can you possibly make a reasonable determination about his fantasy value moving forward?  

There is so much misinformation or biased opinions out there,  even from so-called fantasy experts...  for example there are critics that coming into this last season just kept saying that Torrey couldn't run all the routes and was nothing more than a 9 route fly pattern receiver when that couldn't be further from the truth.   Anybody who actually paid attention realized that he ran all the routes but his role the first couple of years in the NFL was to be the #2 and #3 WR and to stretch the field deep more often than not.   This year was his first season as the #1 WR in the Ravens offense and he ran all the routes just fine,  and despite the constant double coverage,  and despite the lack of help from any other receivers or any kind of a running game he had a fine season considering the circumstances.   If the Ravens can shore up the offensive line and get the running game going again and get healthy at receiver and TE again,  Torrey is easily capable of putting up 80+ catches and 1300-1400 recieving yards and 8+ TDs,  even with Flacco at QB.  

Ah Chris, I love a good debate.

I will somewhat agree with you on the OLine.

As to the running game and it's struggles, who's at fault there? Coaching, talent, OLine, Flacco changing calls? We'll never really know what he did or didn't do at the line.

They averaged almost 23 rush attempts p/game, yet Flacco had almost 39 pass attempts p/game.

The really big change is this:2010-2012, Flacco had 67 TD's with 32 INT's. In 2013, he was 19 and 22. To me, that's significant. Now, you can blame the OLine, no Boldin, no Pitta, etc., but, I just think, in watching, he is making bad decisions and forcing the ball in a lot of cases. I really do feel that he thinks of himself as one of the best QB's out there. It's not wrong to think that, but, if in so doing, when your not, you tend to make really bad decisions.

They were 25th in avg points, 29th in avg Yards, 30th in avg rush yards. The last one stands out to me the most. I've always, maybe wrongly, viewed them as a power run team, or, at least figure they have a much better running game than most teams.

To put it in perspective, the Colts, widely feared for their top-notch run game, avg 109 yds p/game and ranked 21st.

Even more, Houston had the same completion percentage AND had more yards AND had a better TD/INT ratio, be it not by much at 19/21, but, still better.

It could also be that I've never been a big Flacco believer, at all.


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Jan 08, 2014 1:41 pm

I like a lot of the info that PFF produces but some of the analytics they run get a little retarded in my opinion. They say the numbers don't lie but they also don't always tell the whole story! I simply cannot give any creedence to a grading system that would tell me I should consider taking a guy like Ted Ginn, Rishard Matthews or even Rod Streater ahead of Torrey Smith or even in the same tier! That is insanity! When all you do is input the statistics and let some algorhythm churn out a grading or ranking system, you are only factoring in part of the information available. A system like that is mildly amusing but woefully inadequate to make informed fantasy value decisions from...


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Vegas Beach Tiger Sharks
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Jan 08, 2014 2:03 pm

Yes, though it's worth noting that they're not necessarily grading for fantasy purposes. I think they're including elements in their grading that don't specifically translate to FF directly.


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:39 pm

Vegas Beach Tiger Sharks wrote:
Yes, though it's worth noting that they're not necessarily grading for fantasy purposes. I think they're including elements in their grading that don't specifically translate to FF directly.

Either way, their grading system is still basically a product of crunching stats and data... and that is not taking the whole picture into account and in general I find the results more misleading than useful. Is the grading adjusted for having no running game? is it adjusted for terrible OLine play? Is it adjusted for constant double coverage? Is it adjusted for subpar QB Play?

Fantasy purposes or not, I don't put any stock in a system that grades on pure stats, it is a flawed system... For example, Rishard Matthews grading higher than Torrey? Matthews was a #3 slot receiver who got lots and short slants and dump offs and NEVER faced double coverage I would venture to say... Not really comparing apples to apples when you only crunch numbers without any context or supporting information.


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New England Nineties
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Jan 08, 2014 5:01 pm

I'm not sure which stats you're talking about, but their main "grading" system is based on staffers who watch every play, and grade every player on every play as having a positive play, negative play, or a neutral play. Or something close to that. It's an observational rating, not some algorithm.

Obviously that means it's hugely subjective, etc., etc., I'm not saying it's perfect, but that's what it is.


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Jan 08, 2014 5:41 pm

Admittedly, I haven't played with their stats and analytics for a couple of seasons because it costs money and I never found it very useful and I may be confusing PFF with some of the other stat based stuff I have tinkered with in the past... At any rate, if the particular grading that is being discussed here really comes down to staffers subjectively grading plays and they ended up with a guy like Ted Ginn and Rishard Matthews ranked ahead of Torrey Smith, then they either need to re-evaluate the staffers they hired or the system they have employed because something is broken... Whether it is gradings, fantasy rankings or whatever, guys like Ginn and Matthews just don't belong in the same discussion as Torrey Smith.


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Tarpon Springs RedKnights
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Jan 08, 2014 5:48 pm

Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
Admittedly,  I haven't played with their stats and analytics for a couple of seasons because it costs money and I never found it very useful and I may be confusing PFF with some of the other stat based stuff I have tinkered with in the past...   At any rate,  if the particular grading that is being discussed here really comes down to staffers subjectively grading plays and they ended up with a guy like Ted Ginn and Rishard Matthews ranked ahead of Torrey Smith,   then they either need to re-evaluate the staffers they hired or the system they have employed because something is broken...    Whether it is gradings,  fantasy rankings or whatever,  guys like Ginn and Matthews just don't belong in the same discussion as Torrey Smith.
 clap 


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Whiskey Creek Gadabouts
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Jan 09, 2014 7:12 am

Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
Admittedly,  I haven't played with their stats and analytics for a couple of seasons because it costs money and I never found it very useful and I may be confusing PFF with some of the other stat based stuff I have tinkered with in the past...   At any rate,  if the particular grading that is being discussed here really comes down to staffers subjectively grading plays and they ended up with a guy like Ted Ginn and Rishard Matthews ranked ahead of Torrey Smith,   then they either need to re-evaluate the staffers they hired or the system they have employed because something is broken...    Whether it is gradings,  fantasy rankings or whatever,  guys like Ginn and Matthews just don't belong in the same discussion as Torrey Smith.

I disagree. I'd rather they not look at the name on the back of the jersey when evaluating plays.

Just a simple +1, 0 or -1 (I have no idea if that's how they grade players)... But, trust in your system and let the chips fall where they may. If following their protocol yields better results for Matthews over Torrey, so be it. It's just another data point. But, don't let your perception of Torrey being a better player dictate the outcome.

I personally really like following the PFF grades for positions I don't watch. I think they are incredibly valuable for OL and DLine as an example. A guy that eats up 2 blockers so the MLB can make a play deserves credit and I think the PFF system does that.


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Carolina Werewolves
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Jan 09, 2014 7:49 am

The Ravens run game was non existent in 2014. Pierce looked like he took a step back and Ray Rice? He looked terrible. No running game and it looks like Flacco was out of his element.

The trickle down affect hurt Torrey Smith's numbers. The running game working the way it did the last few years would mean that there would be more play action looks less pressure on Flacco and better numbers. I think Torrey on the field looked like a more polished better reciever but the "break out" simply didn't happen (yet)


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Decatur Freakshow
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Jan 09, 2014 9:22 am

Carolina Werewolves wrote:
The Ravens run game was non existent in 2014

Jason, could you please send me your Psychic Hotline number?

I may need it after this year.................

 ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO  ROTFLMAO 



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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Jan 09, 2014 10:18 am

Sanibel Gadabouts wrote:
Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
Admittedly,  I haven't played with their stats and analytics for a couple of seasons because it costs money and I never found it very useful and I may be confusing PFF with some of the other stat based stuff I have tinkered with in the past...   At any rate,  if the particular grading that is being discussed here really comes down to staffers subjectively grading plays and they ended up with a guy like Ted Ginn and Rishard Matthews ranked ahead of Torrey Smith,   then they either need to re-evaluate the staffers they hired or the system they have employed because something is broken...    Whether it is gradings,  fantasy rankings or whatever,  guys like Ginn and Matthews just don't belong in the same discussion as Torrey Smith.

I disagree.  I'd rather they not look at the name on the back of the jersey when evaluating plays.  

Just a simple +1, 0 or -1  (I have no idea if that's how they grade players)... But, trust in your system and let the chips fall where they may.  If following their protocol yields better results for Matthews over Torrey, so be it.  It's just another data point.  But, don't let your perception of Torrey being a better player dictate the outcome.

I personally really like following the PFF grades for positions I don't watch.  I think they are incredibly valuable for OL and DLine as an example.  A guy that eats up 2 blockers so the MLB can make a play deserves credit and I think the PFF system does that.

My whole point is its not that simple to just look at each play in a vacuum... Are they taking circumstance and other information into account? It doesn't appear that they are, and without that the system is just not going to be accurate.

Using the comparison between Rishard Matthews and Torrey Smith is actually a good one... Look at the situation, Matthews is a #3 slot receiver who is never going to see double coverage let alone coverage by one of the defenses best cover men, those guys are busy with Hartline and Wallace... add to that the fact that Tannehill was under pressure alot and he dumped the ball off underneath to guys like Matthews who often was uncovered or loosely covered. Now look at Torrey's situation, he was the #1 receiver for a team that had injuries to other top WR's and TE, he was already going to see the defenses top cover men but due to circumstances this year he saw double coverage more often than not. Not exactly an apples to apples comparison... And even so just looking at the numbers Matthews had 41 catches for 448 yds and 2 TD, if you take the one big game of 11 catches for 120 yds and 2 TD he was not very successful or consistent on the season. Torrey fought through the double coverage to come up with 65 catches for 1128 yds and 4 TD, not bad despite the situation he was in. The only stat I can find that Mattews did better in was his percentage of receptions versus targets, but again if you look at the situation, it makes sense, it would be much easier to convert more of your targets against loose coverage or no coverage like Matthews faced than it would be against the double coverage that Torrey saw.

I would defy anybody here to look at the stats, look at the games and find a rational and logical reason that Rishard Matthews should have graded out higher as a WR than Torrey Smith... I think you will come up as empty as I did...

And that's the bottom line, the system that doesn't take context and circumstance into account when grading players is a faulty one...


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Carolina Werewolves
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Jan 09, 2014 12:32 pm

whatever. Anyone with a penis in their avatar can't make fun of my typos


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Decatur Freakshow
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Jan 09, 2014 1:38 pm

Carolina Werewolves wrote:
whatever. Anyone with a penis in their avatar can't make fun of my typos

C'mon, I have to have some amusement to come here............


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:45 pm

Quote :
(Rotoworld)Torrey Smith is anticipating a more versatile role this season.

Analysis: The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator will be a boon to Smith's box scores. Used too often as a one-trick deep threat through his first three NFL seasons, the speedster's new role "incorporates his ability to run deep routes as well as short to intermediate patterns." Much like the Shanahan & Son offense, the Gary Kubiak scheme is ridiculously friendly to X receivers -- as we saw with Andre Johnson in Houston. Smith is playing the X spot now and is one of our favorite mid-round wideout targets.

This would be nice, Torrey is capable of running all the routes but sort of got pigeon-holed over the last couple of years as a supposed "one-trick pony" because past O.C.'s overused him as a deep threat.


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Mohawk Ridge Marauders
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Feb 04, 2015 7:46 am

Quote :
CBS' Jason La Canfora reports the Ravens offered free agent Torrey Smith a five-year, $35 million deal that included $19 million guaranteed before the season. Analysis: It's an offer Smith will have a hard time matching in free agency after posting a 49/767/11 line in 2014. Smith is one of the league's very best deep threats, but his game hasn't evolved to that of a true No. 1 receiver's. Re-signing with Baltimore makes the most sense for both sides, but Smith may need to test the open market to ensure fair value.

Seems like a decent deal for him.


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Morrison Minions
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:16 am

Yeah, that's good money for what he's worth.


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New England Nineties
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:45 am

That's a half step ahead of Brian Hartline money.


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San Francisco Golddiggers
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:50 am

Crazy to have turned that down. Decker got 5 years $36,250,000 with $15,000,000 guaranteed.


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Minnesota Eternals
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:57 am

Torrey Smith is wildly overrated. He should take whatever he is offered and know that I think it is 90% too much.


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Mohawk Ridge Marauders
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:00 pm

Rumor has it he'll be signing with the 49'ers.


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California Nightmare
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Sun Mar 08, 2015 6:52 pm

Mohawk Ridge Marauders wrote:
Rumor has it he'll be signing with the 49'ers.  

Doesn't make sense to me. scratch

But then again I believe Kaepernick is a joke at QB, and Torrey is shit. So there's that.


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New England Nineties
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Sun Mar 08, 2015 6:57 pm

California Nightmare wrote:
Mohawk Ridge Marauders wrote:
Rumor has it he'll be signing with the 49'ers.  

Doesn't make sense to me. scratch

But then again I believe Kaepernick is a joke at QB, and Torrey is shit. So there's that.

What do you mean Torrey is shit? At the very least he's a useful one trick pony, and his trick happens to be one that nobody else on the 9ers can do.

He may be over-rated and will probably be over-paid, but he's a nice player to have.


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Indiana Mayhem
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Sun Mar 08, 2015 7:15 pm

If Torrey goes to the 49ers do you think he will believe Kappy is an upgrade from Flacco?


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California Nightmare
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Sun Mar 08, 2015 7:19 pm

New England Nineties wrote:
California Nightmare wrote:
Mohawk Ridge Marauders wrote:
Rumor has it he'll be signing with the 49'ers.  

Doesn't make sense to me. scratch

But then again I believe Kaepernick is a joke at QB, and Torrey is shit. So there's that.

What do you mean Torrey is shit? At the very least he's a useful one trick pony, and his trick happens to be one that nobody else on the 9ers can do.

He may be over-rated and will probably be over-paid, but he's a nice player to have.

I don't see him as even having one trick anymore. Unless his trick has become disappearing in games. Yeah some people may like having him to plug into lineups and act like hot shit when he goes for 5/130/2. That 1 week is hard to predict though. I see your point about having the downfield bomb type with Kaepernick chucking scuds 60 yards. I am not a fan and would rather take my chances on the Lotto before investing in him.


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Minnesota Eternals
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Sun Mar 08, 2015 7:43 pm

Love it! Fuck the 49ers and fuck Torrey Smith. Perfect match of overrated horseshit in my eyes!


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Kane County Goon Squad
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:47 pm

Laughing


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Atlanta Africans
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:24 pm

Minnesota Eternals wrote:
Love it!  Fuck the 49ers and fuck Torrey Smith.  Perfect match of overrated horseshit in my eyes!

I know you're highly irrational about these things but I'll ask anyway, how exactly are the 49ers overrated?
3 NFL championship games in 3 years including a SB loss, in each case losing to the eventual SB champions
scratch


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England Dragons
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:26 pm

Atlanta Africans wrote:
Minnesota Eternals wrote:
Love it!  Fuck the 49ers and fuck Torrey Smith.  Perfect match of overrated horseshit in my eyes!

I know you're highly irrational about these things but I'll ask anyway, how exactly are the 49ers overrated?
3 NFL championship games in 3 years including a SB loss, in each case losing to the eventual SB champions
scratch

So you're saying they lost every year...?

wink


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Atlanta Africans
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:42 pm

England Dragons wrote:
Atlanta Africans wrote:
Minnesota Eternals wrote:
Love it!  Fuck the 49ers and fuck Torrey Smith.  Perfect match of overrated horseshit in my eyes!

I know you're highly irrational about these things but I'll ask anyway, how exactly are the 49ers overrated?
3 NFL championship games in 3 years including a SB loss, in each case losing to the eventual SB champions
scratch

So you're saying they lost every year...?

wink

poking


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Minnesota Eternals
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:26 pm

Atlanta Africans wrote:
Minnesota Eternals wrote:
Love it!  Fuck the 49ers and fuck Torrey Smith.  Perfect match of overrated horseshit in my eyes!

I know you're highly irrational about these things but I'll ask anyway, how exactly are the 49ers overrated?
3 NFL championship games in 3 years including a SB loss, in each case losing to the eventual SB champions
scratch

Because I have had to listen to too many people talk about them like they are the elite shit we should all worship but they are just pretenders who lose later than losers who don't bother pretending. They have had a great defense and defied the odds with a RB that just doesn't give up but beyond that they are fucking garbage. Kaepernick is always in the running for Douchechill of the Year, their receivers (and TE) are fucking horrific hacks and outside of the RW owners, their fans are the most delusional cunts I have ever had the displeasure of listening to or reading comments from and that is pretty astounding considering the existence of the Eagles and Cowboys.

Just my opinion...that is 100% correct. wink


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Mohawk Ridge Marauders
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:41 am

Quote :
Just spoke to Anquan Boldin. He said Torrey Smith is going to the #49ers as a done deal. Said he helped with recruiting.


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Minnesota Eternals
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:56 am

metal

Bonus points if we can get Percy "the hack" Harvin over SF as well... pray2


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San Francisco Golddiggers
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:05 pm

Guess I was wrong. He got more than 5 years, 35MM. Too much for the 49ers to pay... doh


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Mohawk Ridge Marauders
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:44 pm

3 year deal with the Eagles


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Nevada NightHawks
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Thu Mar 09, 2017 4:20 pm

Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
I like a lot of the info that PFF produces but some of the analytics they run get a little retarded in my opinion.   They say the numbers don't lie but they also don't always tell the whole story!   I simply cannot give any creedence to a grading system that would tell me I should consider taking a guy like Ted Ginn,  Rishard Matthews or even Rod Streater ahead of Torrey Smith or even in the same tier!  That is insanity!   When all you do is input the statistics and let some algorhythm churn out a grading or ranking system,   you are only factoring in part of the information available.    A system like that is mildly amusing but woefully inadequate to make informed fantasy value decisions from...

Damn!  Chris was hating SMAK before it was even born. I didn't even get a chance to win him over. ROFL


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Charm City Justice
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:26 am

Interesting situation now that they have Alshon as well. I guess it will be him and Alshon on the outside and JMatt in the slot, unless the Eagles move Matthews.


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North Wales Knights
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:49 am

Mohawk Ridge Marauders wrote:
3 year deal with the Eagles


Turns out the deal is actually a 1 year 5mil deal with 2 team option years of 5 mil each. Essentially making it a prove it deal, similar to Alshon with more team control.

I'm hopeful he can revive his deep threat role, he is only 28, but I'm not holding my breath.


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North Wales Knights
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:51 am

Charm City Justice wrote:
Interesting situation now that they have Alshon as well.  I guess it will be him and Alshon on the outside and JMatt in the slot, unless the Eagles move Matthews.

I was having a similar discussion with my buddy about this. I assume base 11 personnel so all 3 on the field majority of downs and Matthews running the slot where he seems to fit best. I know he's entering the last year of his rookie deal, but I would hate to see them move him and then after this year and those other deals expire, the cupboard would be completely bare.


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Muskego Muskies
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Torrey Smith WR PHI   Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:03 pm

One trick Pony and he's really not even good at that IMO


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