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 Giovani Bernard RB CIN

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Mohawk Ridge Marauders
 
 
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PostSubject: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:15 pm

The #1 RB on a lot of boards. Ran solid back-to-back 4.5 40's. Just a little on the small side.

Quote :

5'8" Height
28" Arm Length
202LBS. Weight
9 3/8" Hands


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Mohawk Ridge Marauders
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Apr 26, 2013 6:30 pm

I guess I need to put down the Lacy pipe Laughing


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:55 pm

I like this landing spot for Bernard! The law firm is nothing special, Bernard brings a much more explosive game to the table!


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Norfolk Bombers
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:29 pm

New 1.01???


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:34 pm

Possibility for sure... I was also wanting to see where Jonathan Franklin went, and frankly I am shocked that he is still on the board, especially when some very questionable RBs have gone before him...


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New England Nineties
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Apr 26, 2013 11:36 pm

Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
Possibility for sure... I was also wanting to see where Jonathan Franklin went, and frankly I am shocked that he is still on the board, especially when some very questionable RBs have gone before him...

This kind of drop usually means a medical issue that the public is not aware of.


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Norfolk Bombers
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:17 am

Adelaide Empire wrote:
Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
Possibility for sure... I was also wanting to see where Jonathan Franklin went, and frankly I am shocked that he is still on the board, especially when some very questionable RBs have gone before him...

This kind of drop usually means a medical issue that the public is not aware of.

ala Miller last year.


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Mohawk Ridge Marauders
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Wed Jul 03, 2013 9:12 am

Quote :
Cincinnati Bengals running backs coach Hue Jackson preferred RB Giovani Bernard over RBs Le'Veon Bell, Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy in this year's draft because of Bernard's speed and versatility. Bernard was used as a wide receiver in spring practices, in addition to his rushing duties. 'He's so natural catching the ball. He can catch it like a receiver,' Jackson said. 'I knew he could catch it really well, but I wouldn't be surprised if he could go out there and line up outside and catch balls like some other guys can because he has that skill set.'

Analysis: This wrinkle could ease some RBBC concern in Cincy as Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis may be on the field at the same time. The Law Firm still may start, but Bernard is definitely the Bengals' back you want in PPR leagues.


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Wed Jul 03, 2013 9:23 am

I am really excited to see Bernard on the field! I think he is a playmaker and a much better option than BJGE, I think BJGE probably starts the season as the lead back but I doubt he holds off Gio for long.


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Carolina Werewolves
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Thu Jul 04, 2013 7:21 am

I thought Gio was a good but not great rb in college. He is small but not stout like MJD or Rice so an every down back role will not be in the cards short or long term. The law firm was never a receiving option so touches will be available. I am curious to see if the talk of Gio at WR pans out.


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Jul 05, 2013 4:34 pm

I completely disagree with Jason's opinion that Gio cannot be an every down back... and more importantly so do the Bengals coaches who drafted him to be exactly that.


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Nov 01, 2013 4:43 pm

Quote :
(KFFL) Updating a previous report, Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard (ribs) suffered bruised ribs in the fourth quarter of the team's game Thursday, Oct. 31, but the injury isn't believed to be serious.
Hope its nothing serious, I love watching this guy play! That 35 yd TD run he had last night was one of the best plays of the year... It reminded me of my favorite player of all time Barry Sanders, before anyone misquotes I am not saying Gio will be the next Barry, but he is definitely channeled his inner Barry on that run!

Would love to see what he can do once the Bengals start giving him more touches, like 20-25 a game or so... pure fantasy gold!


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England Dragons
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Nov 01, 2013 4:55 pm

That was probably the best run of the season so far for me. Not just reversing the field like he did, but particularly avoiding the two initial tackles behind the line. Incredible movement and determination.



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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:04 pm

Yeah, he is a more physical and stronger runner than a lot of people want to give him credit for. Breaking two tackles at the same time was pretty damn impressive!


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri May 23, 2014 11:32 am

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000353032/article/bengals-giovani-bernard-slated-for-more-slot-duty-in

The supposed hit to Gio Bernard's fantasy value after they drafted J. Hill is pure myth... a simplistic overreaction... it always amazes me how shortsighted and reactionary many fantasy owners can be... Drafting Hill was an indictment on BJGE (who sucks), it says nothing about Gio or how much the Bengals will use him.

Don't forget that with Gruden out of the fold, so is the pass first offense of yesteryear, they want to run the ball more this year and are going to an up tempo offense to get more snaps on the offensive side. The Bengals have also been vocal all off-season about getting Gio more touches, but they still need a 2nd RB to do what they want and BJGE just wasn't cutting it, so they are upgrading that position. I see Hill/ BJGE getting a fair amount of carries for sure, but I think Gio is still in line for an increase in carries from last season and also it sounds like he will be much more creatively involved in the passing game as well. All things considered his fantasy value should continue to climb even with Hill in town...


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Chicago Crime Syndicate
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri May 23, 2014 12:42 pm

Stud


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New England Nineties
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sun May 25, 2014 9:15 pm

Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000353032/article/bengals-giovani-bernard-slated-for-more-slot-duty-in

The supposed hit to Gio Bernard's fantasy value after they drafted J. Hill is pure myth...  a simplistic overreaction...   it always amazes me how shortsighted and reactionary many fantasy owners can be...  Drafting Hill was an indictment on BJGE (who sucks),  it says nothing about Gio or how much the Bengals will use him.  
   

There may be people over-reacting, but you sure are under-reacting.


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Chicago Crime Syndicate
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sun May 25, 2014 9:21 pm

Adelaide Empire wrote:
Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000353032/article/bengals-giovani-bernard-slated-for-more-slot-duty-in

The supposed hit to Gio Bernard's fantasy value after they drafted J. Hill is pure myth...  a simplistic overreaction...   it always amazes me how shortsighted and reactionary many fantasy owners can be...  Drafting Hill was an indictment on BJGE (who sucks),  it says nothing about Gio or how much the Bengals will use him.  
   

There may be people over-reacting, but you sure are under-reacting.

Doubt it. Gio had 1,209 total yards, 56 receptions and 8TDs during his rookie campaign, one where he didn’t get anywhere close to starter carries or touches. Expecting 500 additional total yards, 14 additional receptions receptions and 2 more TD's is pretty conservative and even that would put him around 300 points on the season. That would have made him a top 4 HB last year.  mischevious  Would it have been better if he would have gotten goal line carries? Of course. Does Hill hurt him a little, sure. But he's no threat to what Gio does best.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sun May 25, 2014 9:30 pm

Chicago Crime Syndicate wrote:
Adelaide Empire wrote:
Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000353032/article/bengals-giovani-bernard-slated-for-more-slot-duty-in

The supposed hit to Gio Bernard's fantasy value after they drafted J. Hill is pure myth...  a simplistic overreaction...   it always amazes me how shortsighted and reactionary many fantasy owners can be...  Drafting Hill was an indictment on BJGE (who sucks),  it says nothing about Gio or how much the Bengals will use him.  
   

There may be people over-reacting, but you sure are under-reacting.

Doubt it.  Gio had 1,209 total yards, 56 receptions and 8TDs during his rookie campaign, one where he didn’t get anywhere close to starter carries or touches.  Expecting 500 additional total yards, 14 additional receptions receptions and 2 more TD's is pretty conservative and even that would put him around 300 points on the season.  That would have made him a top 4 HB last year.   mischevious   Would it have been better if he would have gotten goal line carries?  Of course.  Does Hill hurt him a little, sure.  But he's no threat to what Gio does best.

I think it's silly to take numbers from last year and just add to them, then call it being conservative. It's a new offense with a very different coordinator, and they just spent a top pick to bring in a completely different kind of runner. There are tea leaves to be read.

I own Gio in a league too, I just don't feel the weird pressure some of you do to always wear the rose-colored glasses.


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Chicago Crime Syndicate
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sun May 25, 2014 9:50 pm

14 additional receptions, 2 addition TD's and 500 yards is wearing rose-colored glasses? New offense or not, Gio barely played last year and his PT is bound to increase in his 2nd season. I really don't think those numbers are rose colored glasses. Will he get there? Who knows, but if we are trying to project numbers, I don't think those are out of the realm of possibility.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sun May 25, 2014 10:00 pm

Barely played? He played 55% of the team's snaps. He played 60 fewer plays than Le'Veon Bell.

Barely played, okay, lol.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sun May 25, 2014 10:40 pm

Like I said, stay 1 step behind. I like it like that.  coffee 


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sun May 25, 2014 11:03 pm

The new Bengals O.C. is Hue Jackson,  he was their running backs coach last season,  it may be a new offense to a point but Hue is very familiar with Gio and what he does best and he has been very public about saying they want to get Gio the ball more. 

The offensive scheme in terms of plays will be similar to what it was,   the difference to pay attention to is the offense will be shifting from a pass-first mentality under Gruden to a run heavy approach because they want to take the ball out of Dalton's to an extent.   Then add to that the fact that they want to go to an up-tempo system to get more offensive snaps each game.   If they can average even a conservative 10 additional snaps per game there will be plenty of carries to go around in a run heavy offense for a predominately 2 RB committee like they ran last year.   

J. Hill was drafted to compete with and replace BJGE who sucks,   it has no bearing on the role that Gio will play in the offense.   Why would a team be looking to reduce the role of a second year player who was in the rookie of the year discussion last season?   That would be silly.   Hue wants to go run heavy with 2 RB's and BJGE doesn't fit in,    to me matching last seasons stats would be worst case scenario (if he stays healthy of course) for Gio...   but depending on how run heavy they go and how up-tempo they go he should be in line for quite a few more touches than he got last season as he will assume the #1 RB role in the committee.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 12:51 am

"Gio barely played at all last year!"

He played 55% of the offensive snaps, far more than any other RB on the team, but okay.

"The Bengals are going to go up tempo this year!"

Well they were 8th in the league in offensive plays last yea. But okay.

"They're going to have 10 more snaps per game!"

Oh, is that all? Just 160 snaps more? Well that would put them at 1,257 snaps, which would've blown away the #1 offense in the league last year (the Broncos, obviously). But okay.

"They're going to be switch from a pass heavy team to a run heavy one this year!"

Well they were 10th in the league last year in running %, and 8th overall in rushing attempts, so not really sure if that's what you call "pass heavy." But okay.

You guys are right, I'm being silly.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 1:27 am

Dalton averaged something like 37 pass attempts per game last year...   that is not going to happen this year,  they are going to rush more and pass less,   they want to mask their weakness in Dalton and put the ball in the RB hands,   that is why they needed an upgrade with Hill.   They were not very effective at rushing the ball last year,  mostly due to BJGE's pathetic ypc avg.  and they want to improve on that,  another reason why Gio will get the ball and another reason why they drafted Hill.   

Whether they go as up tempo as they say or as run heavy as they say... we will see,  that could be coach speak,  but the bottom line is there is little reason to think Gio is going to lose touches to a lesser rookie...   As a matter of fact I think he will be more of a focal point this season.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 8:11 am

You're unbelievable Mike. How about making a an actual point that isn't based on trying to to prove others wrong. Is that hard for you to do? First the Bortles/Bridgewater thing and now this. Chris and I have come to the table with actual statements based on reality of why Gio should improve in his 2nd season and all you've done is try to shoot them down without coming to the table with why that won't happen. Or this is another case of you agreeing, but disagreeing with the "reasoning" again?

1) So let's just put it out there for you to answer. Easy question: is Gio going to improve on his rookie season? If yes, is 500 more total yards, 14 more receptions and 2 more TD's unreasonable to expect?

And, if you can help it, try not to be minimizing, deprecating and castigating while retorting. Thanks.

*******

As an aside, when I read the following this am and then read this thread, I couldn't help but just roll my eyes and laugh:

Bengals signed second-round RB Jeremy Hill to a four-year contract.
New OC Hue Jackson wants to turn Andy Dalton into more of a game manager, using his trademark run game to set up the pass. Enter Hill, who will immediately be expected to step in as an upgrade on incumbent big back BenJarvus Green-Ellis. If Hill can gain enough separation in camp, he'll squarely be on the re-draft fantasy radar in touchdown-heavy leagues. The Bengals only have two members of their draft class left to sign (first-round CB Darqueze Dennard and third-round DE Will Clarke). May 26 - 8:12 AM

Then I just had to paste a few Gio statements:


The Bengals plan to use Giovani Bernard at slot receiver more in 2014.
It's one way to compensate for Andrew Hawkins' departure. "We want to do more with him because he can do that," RBs coach Kyle Caskey said. "It's not just put him in the slot. We want him everywhere on the field. He's a lot like Reggie Bush where you have to be aware at all times." Bernard lined up at receiver 42 times as a rookie. Caskey indicated the Bengals want him there much more this season. Bernard is a threat for 70 catches in an offense where he's going to become more of a true lead back. He offers RB1 potential in PPR leagues. May 23 - 9:00 AM


Gio Bernard said the "mentality" of the Bengals' offense "has changed."
Former OC Jay Gruden allowed Andy Dalton to attempt 586 passes last season, eighth-most in the league. New OC Hue Jackson is a longtime proponent of the ground game and he's vowed to use the run to set up the pass. Ideally, Dalton will become a suped-up game manager while Jackson rides Bernard, Jeremy Hill and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. "We're just going to smash your face in -- basically," Gio said. It's among the most obvious and impactful schematic changes we'll see this season. May 22 - 11:33 AM


Coach Marvin Lewis said at the NFL meetings that he envisions "second-year growth" from Giovani Bernard similar to Ray Rice's in Baltimore.
Lewis is a former Ravens assistant, and has faced Rice twice a year as Bengals head coach. Rice's carries ballooned from 107 as a rookie to 254 in his second year, and he caught 78 passes as a sophomore, finishing as the No. 4 overall fantasy running back. Bernard has similarities to Rice in his prime both in terms of size and skill set. Gio is a fantasy blowup candidate for 2014. Mar 25 - 12:42 PM


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 8:56 am

The one thing I find interesting is how they (Benagls) are gonna run more plays as a whole when they say they want to actually run the ball more often and cut back on their passing. It would be very difficult to have more carries and less passing yet increase your overall offensive play tally when one considers that running plays keep the clock moving and in-completions stop the clock. I think if they go with this run heavy "O" they will actually shorten games and thus run fewer totals plays on the season.

 coffee 


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 9:41 am

^good post. Possibility.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 10:00 am

Guys there is no need to take everything so personally and for some unknown reason make personal attacks. If you disagree with the argument - go ahead and say so but don't assume it's always valid/invalid based on the person presenting it...

What happened to the forum police Laughing


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 10:12 am

Atlanta Africans wrote:
Guys there is no need to take everything so personally and for some unknown reason make personal attacks. If you disagree with the argument - go ahead and say so but don't assume it's always valid/invalid based on the person presenting it...

What happened to the forum police Laughing

 good post 

  agree 





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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 10:43 am

Atlanta Africans wrote:
Guys there is no need to take everything so personally and for some unknown reason make personal attacks. If you disagree with the argument - go ahead and say so but don't assume it's always valid/invalid based on the person presenting it...

What happened to the forum police Laughing

Ehh, that is just Mike though,  I think he argues for fun and to try and feel superior or something...   whatever,   its just not worth my time worrying about it...


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 10:44 am

Atlanta Africans wrote:
Guys there is no need to take everything so personally and for some unknown reason make personal attacks. If you disagree with the argument - go ahead and say so but don't assume it's always valid/invalid based on the person presenting it...

What happened to the forum police Laughing

I'll be honest, I'm pretty fed up with Mike belittling everything some people say and just making fun of their thoughts without bringing anything to the table other than to be mean-spirited and condescending. Todd, brought up a legit reason as to why Gio may not get many more touches and that is a fair concern of which I have addressed it as such. Mike just laughs at others and tries to find ways to prove their opinions wrong, again, without bringing anything to the table other than making a mockery of other statements he deems "stupid", "dumb" or unworthy.  vote no 



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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 11:03 am

Hamilton Steel Cats wrote:
The one thing I find interesting is how they (Benagls) are gonna run more plays as a whole when they say they want to actually run the ball more often and cut back on their passing. It would be very difficult to have more carries and less passing yet increase your overall offensive play tally when one considers that running plays keep the clock moving and in-completions stop the clock. I think if they go with this run heavy "O" they will actually shorten games and thus run fewer totals plays on the season.

 coffee 

Here is a link about increasing the tempo:  http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/22/bengals-picking-up-pace-on-offense/

Its a good point about being more run heavy,   it keeps the clock running,  but a potent passing attack like the Broncos will keep the clock running on completed passes as well...    I admit I probably overshot things with an additional 10 plays per game,  they might not average any more than they do now,   and games where they have a solid lead they may average quite a bit less as they try to control the clock and run the game out...    

I still see no evidence that the Bengals view Gio as anything other than their lead back in what they envision to be a more run based attack,   and they want to involve him more in the passing game as well,   get him the ball in space and let him go...   Hill will likely earn a role in this offense but it will be secondary as a power inside runner and short yardage guy,   basically the BJGE role (hopefully without the suckage)...  

So,  my only real point all along is that some in the fantasy circles have overreacted to the Bengals drafting Hill and thinking it hurts Gio's stock,  but the evidence that is out there from all the Bengals coaches and others don't support that notion.   I think it is more reasonable to assume that Gio is in line for an uptick in touches while the Bengals will use two (or more) RB's  and they see Hill as a big upgrade over BJGE.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 11:39 am

In terms of Gio vs the Hill/BGE. I think Gio will certainly have an uptick off stats. He had 170 carries and BGE had 220 in 2013. Gio had 56 catches and BGE had 4.

I see Gio getting 220 to 240 carries and netting 60 or more receptions. So a 300 touch season in short.
That should trasnslate to 1000 rush yds and 600 plus receiving yds. A few extra TD's bumping his 8 as a rookie to say 10 perhaps 11 or 12 even if shit breaks right.

Based on the RW scoring system and using the 16 week with 15 game scheme. Gio scored 212 last year. I could see a 250 pts season this year easily within reach and expectations.

In a nut shell, I see them trying to turn him into a legit feature back. Hill is nothing more than a plow horse IMO. If BGE and Hill both make the team they can split the roughly 150 remaining carries and do the 3 yds and a a cloud of dust with a few vulture TD's.

I have obviously not accounted for any extra offensive production based on more up tempo stuff. Gio uptick comes clearly from carries coming from the big loafs for the most part.

That's my view of Gio and the Clydesdale's.



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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 11:40 am

My two thoughts.  One, the drafting of Hill may not hurt Gio as much as some think, but he is not going to help either.  For example  - I think Hill will outright win the goal line carries similar to the way law-firm did. So, this wont hurt his numbers from last year but wont help either.  I think that they will find Hill a much more competent back than BJGE and will use Hill way more causing very close to 50-50 split in carries.  However this will also allow them to send Gio out wide more if they want....All told I  see his numbers going up, but not completely as much a Jason.  I do not think those numbers are out of reach, just a little high for my projection. 

My second thought is what does this "new offense" do to the value of Green?  If Dalton is turned into a game manager I cannot see that being a plus for him.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 12:11 pm

Not sure that Hill will win the goal line carries outright,  because BJGE didn't get all those last year either.   I watched all the Bengals games on Game Rewind and they gave a fair number of goal line opportunities to Gio.   Of course,  I agree they will find Hill a much more competent back than BJGE,  that isn't saying much,  but taking 50 percent of the carries seems on the high end,  I think Gio has earned the role of the lead back.

I do wonder why the Bengals selected Hill though,   there were plenty of better prospects available when they selected him.   Hill isn't all that quick or fast,  he is not explosive,  he has average balance and vision,  he runs too upright to utlize his power effectively  and he has some character concerns and baggage as well.   All in all he is still an upgrade over BJGE but no where near the caliber of player that Gio is...

And yes,   I would think both Dalton's and Green's fantasy value will be impacted by the change in offensive scheme.   To what extent remains to be seen,  perhaps with a more effective running game they could run more play action passes which might actually help Green enough to keep him in the same ballpark...   It will be interesting to see how the new scheme plays out,  but the Bengals realize they are going nowhere with a slightly above average QB throwing the ball nearly 40 times a game...


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 12:25 pm

Interesting topic. I'll take off my Clowney glasses here for a moment....

I think he gets an uptick in snaps, but, it will only go to 65/35 or 60/40. This is becoming a standard around the NFL. It's why we have devalued RB's so much. So, then take into account whom they play.

Bengals schedule:

at Baltimore
ATLANTA
TENNESSEE
at New England
CAROLINA
at Indianapolis
BALTIMORE
JACKSONVILLE
CLEVELAND
at New Orleans
at Houston
at Tampa Bay
PITTSBURGH
at Cleveland
DENVER
at Pittsburgh

Here are lasts years Def rushing team D positions.

BAL x2: #11 Rushing D
ATL: #31
@ NEP: #30
CAR: #2
@IND: #26
JAX: #29
CLE x2: #18
@NOS: #19
@HOU: #23
@TBB: #15
PIT x2: #21
DEN: #7

I think they will struggle in a lot of games to stay with ball control. The away games hurt against perceived weaker D's. Plus, a lot of these teams have improved their D's this off-season.

You can only stay with the ball control Offense when the game is close. That's what will say what he does in the end.

I tend to agree with Todd, 240-250 is where he ends up.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 1:00 pm

Interesting look at the run defense rankings although last years rankings don't mean much,  and some are deceiving like the Broncos who actually are not that good of a run D,  they just don't see alot of attempts because opponents are throwing to catch up...

I agree with the Gio being in the plus or minus 220 to 240 carries range,  but with him being put in the slot more on passing downs or when they aren't able to control the ball,   he could easily improve on his catch totals from last year and come up with 70 or more...  especially considering Hill and BJGE present very little value as pass catchers so that is one area he will not share touches.

It seems that around 300+ touches on the season is very realistic and should improve his value not diminish it...


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Decatur Freakshow
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 1:17 pm

Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
Interesting look at the run defense rankings although last years rankings don't mean much,  and some are deceiving like the Broncos who actually are not that good of a run D,  they just don't see alot of attempts because opponents are throwing to catch up...

I agree with the Gio being in the plus or minus 220 to 240 carries range,  but with him being put in the slot more on passing downs or when they aren't able to control the ball,   he could easily improve on his catch totals from last year and come up with 70 or more...  especially considering Hill and BJGE present very little value as pass catchers so that is one area he will not share touches.

It seems that around 300+ touches on the season is very realistic and should improve his value not diminish it...

They don't mean much, but some of them, at least on paper, have improved. We'll see what happens. I still see him in the 55-60 REC range too.

As to teams like DEN, it may be deceiving, but it's the truth. Playing @ NEP and NOS will hurt his numbers I think. Just hard to run the ball at their fields.


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 1:48 pm

Decatur Demons wrote:
Devils Tower Outlaws wrote:
Interesting look at the run defense rankings although last years rankings don't mean much,  and some are deceiving like the Broncos who actually are not that good of a run D,  they just don't see alot of attempts because opponents are throwing to catch up...

I agree with the Gio being in the plus or minus 220 to 240 carries range,  but with him being put in the slot more on passing downs or when they aren't able to control the ball,   he could easily improve on his catch totals from last year and come up with 70 or more...  especially considering Hill and BJGE present very little value as pass catchers so that is one area he will not share touches.

It seems that around 300+ touches on the season is very realistic and should improve his value not diminish it...

They don't mean much, but some of them, at least on paper, have improved. We'll see what happens. I still see him in the 55-60 REC range too.

As to teams like DEN, it may be deceiving, but it's the truth. Playing @ NEP and NOS will hurt his numbers I think. Just hard to run the ball at their fields.
Gio had 56 catches last year when he didn't play out of the slot,   are you discounting the fact that he will be used in the slot and all over the field this year?   In addition to being the lead back he is going to pick up some of the slack from losing Andrew Hawkins in the slot and he excels at receiving.   I see him in a bit of a Sproles role with the receiving,  I think he easily ends up with more catches than 55-60,   I think 70 is probably about right.   Its not like the other backs are going to get many of those passes as they have sub par receiving skills at best...


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Minnesota Eternals
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 2:13 pm

I dont give a shit about Gio and hate that the bengals took Hill. Fuckin stupid.


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Decatur Freakshow
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Mon May 26, 2014 2:37 pm

I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential, nor the talent. He does. They just won't over-use him.

So, what I am discounting is 300+ touches. I don't see it happening. Look at PHI, they way over-used McCoy and they know it. They want him at 280-300 TOTAL touches, so, as not to kill him. I fully expect to see Forte's numbers drop this year also. Both teams made moves to cut into their numbers. Marshawn only had 336 touches and they expect to lower that number this year. These guys are the true Bell-Cows and power backs and their teams want to lower their touch counts.

Plus, if he plays a lot more in the slot, he can't run the ball. So, which is true? Will they be a run heavy team? If so, his slot time HAS to go down. Do we just discount they have, arguably, one of the best WR's in the game? Their TE's are pretty decent too. So, does he become the primary this year, in essence, the next Shady?

Sorry, no way. He has the talent, I think he improves his numbers, but if he reaches 70 catches, no way he adds 500 yards more rushing this year.

I expect around 250-260 total touches. Which would be correct if he sees 10% more snaps.

NFL coaches and GM's know that 300+ touch seasons can spell early doom for RB's unless they are just really special. Even when they are that special guy, they are trying to get them down below that 300 plateau. I could be wrong, but, when you look at what teams are saying, how they have drafted, you do have to believe it.






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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:39 am

Quote :
(Rotoworld)Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson believes new OC Hue Jackson intends to "take the load off" Andy Dalton, and reduce his pass attempts from last year's 586 to "closer to Russell Wilson's number of 407."
Analysis: Hobson believes the Bengals may scrap Jay Gruden's old high-volume short to intermediate passing game, and allow the "running game to open up the deep ball." This, of course, is Jackson's offense. He's a power-run coach with vertical leanings in the passing attack. Turning Dalton into a low-volume game manager would significantly curb Dalton's fantasy appeal. It would also almost certainly curb the Bengals' team turnover rate.

Regardless of whether Gio gets 300 touches or not... the fact is they will be running more and trying to keep Dalton from turning it over... seems like a better plan than what they did last year...


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Naperville Divine
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:47 pm

Gio is the highest drafted player that I have seen in a long time based on speculation. We have such a small sample size that I'm not sure that he can be a workhorse back. Hill may do the dirty work and get the goal line carries. What is Gio's upside if he doesnt get the goal line carries? 70 catches, 700 yards receiving, 500 yards rushing, and 4 total TDs is my opinion of his upside. Does that justify the 3rd-5th RB taken?


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:54 pm

Naperville Divine wrote:
Gio is the highest drafted player that I have seen in a long time based on speculation.  We have such a small sample size that I'm not sure that he can be a workhorse back.  Hill may do the dirty work and get the goal line carries.  What is Gio's upside if he doesnt get the goal line carries?  70 catches, 700 yards receiving, 500 yards rushing, and 4 total TDs is my opinion of his upside.  Does that justify the 3rd-5th RB taken?
Not sure I follow your logic...   Granteed,  Gio is not going to to be a feature back because Cinci is a committee,  but he will be the lead back in the rotation over Hill,   this is a fact...    Everyone who didn't watch the Bengals play last year said that Gio doesn't  get goal line carries but those of us who paid attention know differently...   

I don't know what your projections are based on,  but I think you off...   He is the lead back in an offense that is going to run more and pass less.   Last year he got 170 attempts and went for 695 yds (4.1 ypc),   this year the attempts should easily go to 200+,   so lets say even if he only gets 200 carries (which is probably low)  and goes for 4.0 ypc,  that is still 800 yds rushing...  why you think he would go down to 500 is beyond me...  the 70 catches for 700 yds is probably on the high end,   but he is capable...   If he rushes for 800 and catches for 600 that is 1400 total yds,  I think this is probably his floor,  he has the upside to do even more damage.    And the final item,  total TDs...   he had 8 last year,   and he is going to get the ball more this season,    I think 6-8 total TDs is the floor,   not sure why you think he would regress to 4 total TDs this year?   I don't see any way his TDs are cut in half!   He has the upside to get double digit total TDs pretty easily.   The more he touches the ball the more chances he will have to break off the big plays and score TDs.   

The bottom line is that Gio is going to get the ball more this season,  so barring injury he should produce as much or more than he did last year.   I don't really understand why you are thinking his upside is to put up worse numbers than he had last year...   that is just silly.


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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sat Jun 21, 2014 11:08 am

Did you just say 1,400 yards is his floor???

 shut up  shut up  shut up


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Devils Tower Outlaws
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:24 pm

Barring injury and playing all 16 games,   yes I think 1400 combined yards is probably where his floor is.   That is a modest 800 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving.   6 total TDs would also be a minimum I think...

Looking at last year,  he was not the lead back and only averaged 14 touches per game and still came away with 170 carries for 695 yards (4.1 ypc)  and 56 catches for 514 yards (9.2 ypr) to go along with 8 total TDs.    So he had 226 touches for 1209 combined yards and 8 total TDs as a rookie.   

This season he will be the lead back and will get more touches...  With the Bengals reducing pass attempts and running more often,   he will get more carries,   my number is based on a modest increase in carries up to 200 which is averaging 12-13 carries a game.   I think this will be minimum,  I could see him averaging 15 carries per game which would result in 240 carries for the season.   At any rate  I say 200 carries @ 4 ypc is 800 yds rushing as his floor.   For receiving,  if he gets from 60 to 65 catches  and averages 9 to 10 yds per catch he will have 600 yds receiving.   The way they are talking about putting him in the slot more this year I think a modest increase in receptions is to be expected.  

Put it all together,   if Gio maintains his avgs of 4 ypc  and 9 ypr (5.35 yards per touch),   he should only need to average between 2 and 3 more touches per game to hit 1400 total yards.    Truth be told I think his reception avg goes down a little and his ypc goes up a bit,  but I think averaging 5.25 to 5.5 yards per touch is realistic,  and I think he will get more than an additional 2 to 3 touches per game.  A very modest increase in touches puts him in the neighborhood of 250-260 touches for the year which makes 1400 combined yards a realistic number for his floor.

I think with his explosiveness and big play ability,  the extra carries will probably spike his rushing ypc up to around 4.5 or so.   He is one of those guys who can break off big gains every time he touches the ball.


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Chicago Crime Syndicate
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:52 pm

I'd be disappointed with 1400 combined yards. I also don't see his receptions dipping from last yr especially if he lines up as a receiver often. Bottom line he's going to be on the field much more. Anything short of a top 10 HB performance will be a disappointment.


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Muskego Muskies
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:59 pm

I've been scarred by Reggie Bush I think, when I see a smaller RB getting more carries I automatically think injury. I think 15-20 touches a game max, however they divide that up between carries/catches.


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Chicago Crime Syndicate
 
 
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PostSubject: Re: Giovani Bernard RB CIN   Sat Jun 21, 2014 2:16 pm

Ray Rice is small. Warrick Dunn is small. MJD is small. There is a pretty long list of smallish talented HB's that aren't injury prone. Bush is 6 feet tall and 200 lbs, so he isn't exactly small. Gio is 5'9" and 210 lbs. He's much more dense, compact and powerful than Bush. Gio is much more A faster version of Ray Rice.


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